What MAT leaders should focus on when planning in uncertain times – insights from our latest roundtable.
For MAT leaders, workforce planning is one of the most complex challenges to navigate. Between falling pupil numbers, changing demographics and new expectations from staff, traditional planning tools often fall short. So what does work? That’s what we explored at our latest SEG Insights MAT Leader roundtable, where leaders from across the country came together to swap ideas and rethink workforce strategy for today’s unpredictable landscape.
Planning when the data isn’t clear
A key starting point was taking a look at the data. James Zuccolo from the Education Policy Institute pointed out that the data trusts rely on – birth rates, future pupil numbers, early recruitment trends – often arrives late, and sometimes not at all.
This is especially tricky in primary schools, where there are no feeder schools to give early signals and migration has long been unpredictable both in and out of catchment areas. Pupil numbers have been falling for a while, yet trusts still have to make long-term staffing and budget commitments.
One practical conclusion from the discussion was that two-year workforce planning feels like the most workable timeframe. Long enough to support financial and staffing stability, but flexible enough to adapt as demographics shift. For MAT leaders, this means resisting overly long forecasts and instead building scenario-based planning into workforce strategy.
An interesting discussion point came from the data shared on the day around those returning to education after a period of time out – who are they, why do they come back, why did they leave, and if those numbers are now higher than the new entrants, what can we do to encourage and support those experienced teachers back in to the classroom and thrive? This raised more questions than answers, but this will be a topic that both EPI and SEG committed to continuing to research and return to the group with further insights and possible solutions.
Using benchmarking to plan with confidence
When certainty is limited, benchmarking is key – but only if it is done well.
Helen Dowsett from our School Business Services business highlighted the importance of “apples-to-apples” benchmarking: comparing staffing, spend and structures against similar schools and trusts, not generic averages or schools that are working within completely different context. For MAT leaders, this provides a clearer sense of:
- What “good” looks like in comparable contexts
- Whether staffing levels are proportionate
- Where costs are genuinely high versus structurally different
Benchmarking should not be a one-off exercise or the responsibility of a single individual. The strongest MATs use it collaboratively, ensuring finance, HR, operational leaders and event curriculum leaders share a common understanding as budgets and priorities evolve. Additionally, having benchmarking in place enables decisions to be made and expectations set around when considering replacements, growing or reducing staffing numbers and roles.
Supply cover made simpler
One of the highlights from the day was hearing directly from Our Lady Help of Christians Trust about their experience using SupplyBank, our managed solution for supply cover.
They shared how having a single account manager to oversee supply has saved them not just time and money, but has enabled them to have real-time oversight and reporting on their cost line. Everything runs through one master vendor solution, making it simple to manage cover across the trust. It’s a practical example of how modern recruitment solutions can free up leaders to focus on strategy – not spreadsheets.
Learn more about SupplyBank.
Rethinking retention through a modern workforce lens
Retention, as well as recruitment, featured heavily in the discussion, but with a shift in emphasis that MAT leaders will recognise.
We talked about the reality of the modern workforce: longer working lives, ‘squiggly careers’ and rising expectations around flexibility, authenticity and development. For education, this requires a rethink of how roles are designed and how progression paths are framed.
Pay and workload do, of course, still matter – but they’re just part of the picture. Onboarding, culture, people management and whether staff feel equipped for the modern classroom and leadership roles are all factors.
There was also a strong sense that the sector does not do enough to promote the positives of working in education. A different flexibility, purpose and the opportunity for personal growth remain powerful draws, but they are often overshadowed by negative narratives.
Developing internal capacity, not just recruiting
Sustainable workforce planning isn’t just about hiring new people – it’s about growing the talent you already have. Apprenticeships and structured career pathways are practical tools for boosting retention, succession planning and smarter use of funding.
Equally important was the recognition that progression in education has historically been too narrow. Leadership roles often require skills in people management, finance and operations, yet many are promoted without structured preparation. Investing in these capabilities is critical to long-term stability.
We heard from Martha Walsh, LMP, and Chris Ludlow from Best Practice Network about the upcoming changes to apprenticeships – for example, how from April trusts will have 12 months to use their levy pot instead of the current 24 months and how staff will be able to complete specific modules (like AI) rather than longer-term courses.
What MAT leaders can take forward
So, what should MAT leaders actually do? From the roundtable discussion, one thing was clear: sustainable workforce planning isn’t about predicting the future perfectly. It’s about planning intelligently, using the best available insight, and building flexibility into your strategy.
The long and short of it is:
- Plan within realistic, flexible timeframes
- Use benchmarking to guide decisions
- Design roles and pathways for modern careers
- Invest in development, not just recruitment
- Explore practical tools like managed supply solutions to save time and resources
There’s not one silver bullet here, just achievable strategies that give trusts the confidence to navigate uncertainty while building a workforce that lasts.
Find out more about SupplyBank or SkillsHub, our unique managed services for recruitment and apprenticeships, respectively.